UEFA Euro 2024 – Pre-Tournament Guide

This summer delivers one of the most anticipated tournaments in world football:

UEFA Euro 2024 in Germany. It’s not just a month of international football, it’s a golden opportunity to test strategies across outright markets, group stages, and player specials. With 24 nations competing, variance and value is guaranteed. International football tournaments provide nonstop opportunities to capitalise on bookmakers’ mistakes.

Why Euro 2024 Is a Dream for Punters.

• Tournament format: With group stages and knockout rounds, markets evolve rapidly, meaning early edges can be very different from those in later rounds.
• Public money dominance: Millions of casual punters back their national teams, favourites, or star players, distorting markets and creating inefficiencies and false prices.
• Neutral territory advantage: All matches played in Germany mean travel and home advantage dynamics differ—some nations adapt better to neutral venues than others.
• Tournament volatility: Upsets are common in tournaments. Underdog punters often thrive in group stages, where favourites can be caught cold or start slowly.

Main Pre-Tournament Betting Markets

• Outright Winner: Traditional favourite-heavy market, but inflated prices on outsiders offer long-term hedging opportunities.
• Group Winner/Qualification: Ideal for identifying strong teams with soft groups—often a better entry point than backing outright winners.
• Golden Boot (Top Scorer): A market shaped by group stage fixtures. Players facing weaker opposition early on gain an outsized advantage in theory, however inflated prices on 2^nd tier strikers can be value.
• Player of the Tournament: More subjective, often favouring attacking players from teams reaching at least the semi-finals.
• Stage of Elimination: Punters can profit by predicting not just success, but also where favourites might realistically fall short.

Key Aspects to Understand pre-tournament

1. Fixture Analysis: Some perceived larger teams have tough group draws; others face much easier paths. Group balance is a huge betting factor.
2. Form & Momentum: Nations arriving on winning streaks or with stable squads are better positioned than those battling injuries or internal drama. Understanding in-team politic is important, ensuring a team have harmony is essential, there are a lot of large ego in world football. Researching what is happening behind the scenes is a vital part of analysis.
3. Managerial Styles: Some coaches will play defensively against the better teams,  (good for unders of course:), others will play more aggressively, it is essential to understand coach strategies, researching previous strategies against different types of teams cannot be underestimated in importance.
4. Injury News: Star players missing tournaments often creates sudden market swings, you’ll need to know who’s injured or carrying knock and who’s fully fit.
5. Penalty Trends: International tournaments often see penalties. Backing penalty takers in scorer markets is a shrewd pre-tournament decision if you feel teams will play out close games.

Value Opportunities Pre-Tournament

• Golden Boot Picks Beyond Superstars: Instead of short-priced stars like Kane or Mbappé, strikers in softer groups offer better value. We predict games will be tight and a lot of the better teams will cancel each other out.
• Group Qualification Multiples: Accas built from strong teams with soft groups provided safer (but still profitable) pre-tournament plays.
• Stage of Elimination Bets on Favourites: For instance, backing a favourite to exit at quarter-finals could pay big compared to outright winner prices.

Smart Betting Tips for Euro 2024

• Avoid Home Bias: English and German punters will heavily back their teams, often shortening odds unrealistically, don’t follow blindly. Home advantage is something worth considering, however we are not in the Germany camp, and their odds are way too short of what they should be.
• Shop the Market Early: Outright Winners and Golden Boot odds will move quickly once the tournament commences, if this is an area you wish to bet, get on early.
• Prepare for In-Play Opportunities: Group stages bring mismatches, live betting after an early goal often produces huge value if markets overreact, be aware of in game stats and what those stats mean. Just because a team has 65% possession does not mean they are dominating, the other team may be controlling the game by surrendering possession.
• Balance Long-Term & Short-Term Bets: Mix outright futures with match-level bets for cash flow and variance control.

Conclusion

Euro 2024 isn’t just a festival of football—it’s a festival of betting opportunity. The short format, unpredictable knockouts, and the weight of public money creating a false market environment where opportunities will thrive.

Pre-tournament favourites England and France are justifiably at the top of the market, but there is no real value in their odds. There is some value at greater odds in reaching the semi-final markets. Subscribe to our VIP or Educational services for more in depth analysis and tournament selections or purchase our one-off tournament analysis package.