England & Ireland Betting Card: Football + Horse Racing (Saturday Guide)

How we build this card

Same method across sports: make a fair price, compare to market, bet when the edge is 3–7% or better. Units are 0.5–2u based on edge and confidence.

Football — England

1) Premier League: Brentford vs Brighton — Both Teams To Score “Yes” (−110) — 1u
Fair price: −125 (edge ~3.3%)
Why: Both average top-8 xG for/against over last 6; fullbacks push high creating transitions both ways.
Shop it: Play to −118. Skip at −120 or worse.

2) Championship: Leeds −0.25 Asian Handicap (−112) — 1u
Fair price: −128 (edge ~5%)
Why: Midfield ball-wins vs opponent’s low build-up success; quarter ball refunds half stake on draw.
Live plan: If game state is level at HT with xG ≥ 0.8 for Leeds, add 0.5u at evens or better.

Football — Ireland

3) League of Ireland: Derry City vs Bohemians — Under 2.25 (−105) — 0.75u
Fair price: −120 (edge ~3.6%)
Why: Both sides in compact shapes on short rest; last 5 H2Hs avg 1.8 xG.
Shop it: Accept to −112. Consider cash-out if early red card kills the under.

Horse Racing — England (Ascot)

4) Ascot 15:35 — 6f Hcp — “Bay Eclipse” 1pt each-way @ 8/1 (example name; swap with your pick)
Why: Drawn middle with pace up the stands side; last-out speed figure +6 vs par; trainer 18% last 14 days.
Place terms: 1/5 odds, 1–4 places (check book). Take 7/1+ each-way; if ≤ 6/1, reduce to win-only 1pt.

Horse Racing — Ireland (Curragh)

5) Curragh 16:10 — G3 — “Green Orchard” 1pt win @ 3/1 (example name)
Why: Proven on yielding; sectional upgrade over course/distance; stable targets this race annually.
Notes: If going turns good-to-firm, cut stake to 0.5pt or pass.

Bankroll & housekeeping

• 1u ≈ 1% bankroll. Never exceed 2–3% on a single opinion.

• Always record target price and skip price; results tracked in units and CLV.

• Racing: confirm going, non-runners, and place terms before staking.

Bet responsibly. If it stops being fun, step away.