Saturday Value Bets: How We Pick Edges + 3 Example Plays

How our tips work

We bet numbers, not teams. Each pick starts with a fair-odds price from our model (form, injuries, schedule, and recent xG/efficiency). If the market price is better than our fair price by ~3–7%, it’s a play. We’ll note the edge, suggested unit size, and what could move the line.

Unit scale (per $1,000 bankroll):

• 0.5u = $5 (lean)

• 1u = $10 (standard)

• 2u = $20 (strong)
  Never risk more than 2–3% of bankroll on a single game.

Today’s example card

Replace teams/odds with your slate—format stays the same.

1) Match: Team A vs Team B
Pick: Under 2.5 goals (−105) — 1.25u
Model fair: −120 (edge ~3.6%)
Why: Team A’s last 6 matches: 0.92 xGF, 0.78 xGA pace; Team B playing 3rd match in 8 days, low shot volume.
Shop note: Accept to −115. Skip if it hits −120.
What to watch: If starting striker for Team B is out, consider 0.25u add at −110 or better.

2) Match: Team C −0.25 Asian Handicap (−112) — 1u
Model fair: −128 (edge ~5%)
Why: Midfield matchup favors C; opponent concedes high-value transitions. Quarter-ball protects half stake on draw.
Live plan: If C starts slow but xG looks even at HT and price improves to +100, add 0.5u.

3) Player Prop: Team D winger over 2.5 shots (−120) — 0.75u
Model fair: −140 (edge ~4.3%)
Why: Role shift to left-cut inside; opponent allows above-average wide attempts. Correlates with Team D corners over.
Shop note: Books vary a lot on props—set an alert and take best number.

Bankroll & discipline

• Treat units like rent money—fixed, boring, non-negotiable.

• One slate ≠ one paycheck. It’s okay to pass when numbers aren’t there.

• Track results by closing line value (CLV) and units, not just wins/losses.

Line movement checklist (copy/paste for each slate)

•  Confirm starting lineups & late injuries

•  Check weather/pace factors

•  Compare 3 books before placing (we list target prices above)

•  Avoid same-game over-correlation unless it’s intentional

Responsible betting

Only wager what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, step away and talk to someone you trust.