Shop the Line: The Easiest Way to Add Edge to Every Bet

Why shopping lines matters

Books don’t match each other perfectly. A 2–5 cent difference on a moneyline or a half-point on a spread changes your break-even rate and long-term profit. If you only ever take the first price you see, you’re giving away edge.

Break-even formula:
Breakeven % = price / (price + 100) for plus money, or = 100 / (price + 100) for minus money.
Example: −110 needs 52.38%. −105 needs 51.22%. That 1.16% gap is your edge before the game even starts.

What to compare

• Moneylines: Look for 3–10 cent spreads (e.g., −110 vs −107 vs −105).

• Spreads/totals: Half-points around key numbers (football: 3, 7; basketball: 3, 5, 7).

• Props: Books are widest here—often 10–20 cents apart with different lines.

Pre-bet checklist (1 minute)

1. Check at least 3 books (screen or app alerts).

2. Record the best available number only.

3. Size stake by edge (0.5–2u).

4. Note a target price and a skip price so you don’t chase.

5. Track closing line value (CLV): did your number beat the close?

Example card (swap in your slate, keep the format)

1) Soccer — Under 2.5 goals

• Best number found: −105 (other books −110/−115) — 1.25u

• Fair price (model): −118 → edge ≈ 2.8–5.0 cents vs market.

• Target: −108 or better. Skip at −115.

• Note: If wind/rain reports worsen pre-kick, consider +0.25u at −105 or better.

2) Basketball — Home +5.5 (−112)

• Other prices: +5 (−110), +5.5 (−118).

• Half-point at −112 is worth ~2–3% swing near the endgame foul zone. 1u

• Live plan: If market moves to +6 at −110 during first TV timeout, add 0.5u.

3) Player Prop — WR over 4.5 receptions (+110)

• Elsewhere: +100 and +102. Take the +110 — that’s +0.10 units EV per unit. 0.75u

• Correlation: Team projects +8% pass rate over expectation; monitor inactives.

Bankroll notes

• 1u = 1% of bankroll (example). Never exceed 2–3% on a single position.

• Your job isn’t to bet every game; it’s to bet the best number on the games you already like.

Tools & habits that help

• Odds screens or alert bots for key markets you play.

• A simple sheet tracking: market, your line, book taken, CLV, units, result.

• Weekly review: wins don’t matter as much as how often you beat the close.

Responsible betting

Wager responsibly. If betting stops being fun, take a break and seek support.